2021 brides - guest list smaller than anticipated?

For our October wedding we have only gotten 4 declines so far but they both weren't due to Covid. So far we have gotten 60 yes and still waiting for about 40 more responses to come in.

I think a couple of our guests declined due to COVID, but a lot of them were a complete toss up of whether they'd come anyway. FH's family is local so we expected nearly all to RSVP yes (we only got 3 no's from his side, and those were a surprise), but my family is all over the country. My dad's side responded how I expected based on recent weddings but my mom's side and family friends were a mystery - I think most of the declines were due to the fact that they'd have to drive 6+ hours and stay in a hotel in order to attend.

We invited about 150 and now are only expecting 75-80 to show. We have some COVID protocols in place based on our county and the venue and I know that's a big reason for a lot of the no's we've already received. We're still missing a fair amount of RSVPs (not due until Sept 1), so I might be surprised!

We invited 240 and have only 97 attending with a deadline for response cards tomorrow. However, we are still expecting at least 120 to attend. I do think most who declined are worried about travel with COVID as many stated it on little notes on the response card. The responses we are waiting on are ones I somewhat knew would respond last minute lol. USPS has also made it difficult with all of their delays!